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PostPosted: Mar 29, 2011 3:43 pm 
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dmcmahon wrote:
I've seen that graph. To be fair, it doesn't look that bad. They've held their fossil electricity at approximately the same level for almost 40 years, and all the growth in demand has been met by nukes and renewables, with renewables making up almost all of the increase in the past 10 years. That's impressive IMO. But looking at the chart, it's hard to see how the fossil number will go down over the next 40 years, even if renewables can be expanded to replace the nukes, which seems doubtful unless they've got some way to make them produce baseload. Perhaps their plan is to throw a lot of intermittent capacity onto the grid and sell excess power cheaply to neighbors, then buy reliable power at high cost from those same neighbors? Either way it seems like the fossil component isn't going to go away.


The fossil component is not going away because Germany has stopped building nuclear plants. You can see from the graph that it is mostly nuclear power that held fossil fuel growth at bay.

Saying fossil fuels have not increased is kind of like saying you've killed 10 people a year since 1972 but are not killing more than 10 people a year today so that makes it okay. And boy, do fossil fuels kill.

There is no excuse for Germany's pathetic energy policy. I'm ashamed to live next to that country. Some nasty brown coal particulate is coming this way whenever the winds are from the east. Yugh.


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PostPosted: Mar 29, 2011 4:05 pm 
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The country that once the was the country of "Dichter und Denker" is now the country of "Bescheuerte und Bekloppten" :-(


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PostPosted: May 17, 2011 5:34 pm 
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Cyril R wrote:
There is no excuse for Germany's pathetic energy policy. I'm ashamed to live next to that country. Some nasty brown coal particulate is coming this way whenever the winds are from the east. Yugh.


Thats quite a bit harsh dont you think? Im am German and, living here, I am not ashamed of my country! Sure, i dont agree with the policy our goverment chose, but still I think that Germany at least tries to produce clean energy. Sadly on the wrong track though =/
And i agree with the government shutting down existing atomic power plants, since (considering the waste problem) they cant really be considered the most rational choice... For me, its more about th "when" than about the "if", and also about the "what then"!
What really dives me mad is that i just recently "discovered" LFTRs. I had never heard of them before, which is a shame considering the huge debate we have about atomic energy. I have never even heard the word Thorium in any relation to atomic energy, and really listened/watched a lot on the topic. In my opinion, thats just ignorant.
Still I am not ashamed of living in Germany, and i cant really see any reason for our neighbours to feel that way. There's will be at least as much wrong in other European (or most any other) countries as there is in Germany!


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PostPosted: May 17, 2011 7:37 pm 
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Welcome Derpda,

The energy policy of Germany shows a big financial commitment to clean energy - good intentions backed by spending plenty of money. Unfortunately it is on the wrong track.

In the US we are also very dependent on coal for our electricity, which is sad.

The biggest issue is not the US or Germany but rather India and China. We must invent an electricity source that is lower cost than coal or the world will multiply its coal burning many times over.


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PostPosted: May 17, 2011 11:43 pm 
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The French have an opportunity of selling Nuclear Power to Germany and Italy now that they seem to be going out of market for reactors and fuel.
Then there are Koreans, who outbid them in UAE.
Best off are Russians who are selling gas and Nuclear Power Plants all over the globe. They have also developed floating Power Plants for spot delivery. No time for NIMBY problems also faced by India about procurement of EPRs at Jaitapur on west coast.
Chinese hold a lot of exchange funds. I expect they will build floating NPPs for spot delivery. They may be able to underbid the Russians.


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PostPosted: May 18, 2011 11:21 am 
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In fact, although France is globally an exporter on a year, it imports electricity in winter, especially from Germany.
If 10 GW are missing on the european grid because Germany decides to close now nuclear reactors, without transition, it can become a problem for other countries.


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PostPosted: May 18, 2011 2:32 pm 
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lambda0 wrote:
In fact, although France is globally an exporter on a year, it imports electricity in winter, especially from Germany.
If 10 GW are missing on the european grid because Germany decides to close now nuclear reactors, without transition, it can become a problem for other countries.


The French have a suprisingly large amount of direct resistance electrical heating. Replacing with modern heat pumps gets you 'virtual capacity' of nuclear power freed up. Similarly the Besse enrichment plant project, replacing inefficient gaseous diffusion with efficient centrifuges, will free up 3 GWe of nuclear reactor power before 2015, when the project is completed. So the French could cut their consumption, import very little in winter, and export the summer excess to other countries.

DaveMart has thought a lot about this concept, its very attractive. Quick nuclear gigawatts.


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PostPosted: May 18, 2011 11:44 pm 
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I agree with that, but I was talking about short term, the following year.
The electrical heating will not be replaced within a few months. And each year, the heaviest winter load is higher.

Some data (in french) :
http://www.rte-france.com/uploads/media ... 009_an.pdf

The other thing is that, as shown on table A2, page 12, France imports electricity from Germany all the year, not only a few days in winter :
exports to Germany=7211 GWh, imports from Germany=19196 GWh
(2009 statistics)


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PostPosted: May 19, 2011 2:15 am 
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With German nuclear going out, the French could upscale their production, virtually replacing the German output as they play around with renewable capacity. The French have retired out their own coal and are likely to be competitive with new coal at also increased rates.
Russian gas could be quicker if the Russians are able to overcome the problems with Ukraine and Belarus.


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PostPosted: May 19, 2011 2:33 am 
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Quote:
Some data (in french) :
http://www.rte-france.com/uploads/media ... 009_an.pdf


This is a very good, very readable statistical summary. I'm impressed, and I wish the US EIA would produce stuff this good.

Sadly, no price information.

I certainly learned something. I knew France was a net exporter of electricity. But my prior understanding was that they exported quite a bit to Germany. Apparently not: they import from Germany. Their major exports are to Switzerland and Italy. Switzerland is apparently breaking even on electricity, so is effectively passing on France's electricity to Italy, probably time-shifting it with the alpine reservoirs and increasing the price in the process. (Italy is thus getting about 9% of the entire electric supply from France, with more than half of that going through Switzerland.) Swiss exports to France spiked in July, when French electricity use was at a low. Hrmm... what does that mean?

In 2007 Germany exported 12.38 TWh total. In the same year France exported 56 TWh (page 11, A). Sigh, PDF is so lame for linking compared with HTML.

Hey! Here's something: Prices of industrial electricity across Europe in July 2007. France has some of the lowest at 53 euros/MWh. Germany is 90.2 euros/MWh. Netherland is about the same as Germany. That agrees with my prior understanding.

Also, France hasn't increased nuclear capacity since 1999 and all the recent increase in generation has been from renewables, which are on a pretty significant growth curve.

-Iain


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PostPosted: May 19, 2011 9:06 am 
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12 TWh/year is really nothing, France generates about 560 TWh/year. As for renewables, they may be on a 'pretty significant growth curve', twice not much is still not much (the typical 'percent talk' fallacy). France is powered by nuclear and hydro. Wind and solar are pathetic, hardly surprising, they are marginal energy sources by nature.

http://www.iea.org/stats/pdf_graphs/FRELEC.pdf


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PostPosted: May 19, 2011 9:53 am 
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I was just pointing to the fact that european countries are interconnected and dependent on each other, and that if Germany removes suddenly 10 GW or more from its generating capacities, without compensation because it takes time to build new coal or gas plants, it may become a problem for other countries when the demand will peak.
Of course, it's possible to adapt, to build new coal plants, I was just thinking about a short term potential problem, next winter.


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PostPosted: May 19, 2011 11:27 am 
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ERDF (French electricity utility) also has a big initiative to move to smart meters. That means that they are planning to do time-of-use metering and demand control. So, they will be managing all their heating much more cleverly.


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PostPosted: May 20, 2011 7:00 am 
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derpda wrote:
And i agree with the government shutting down existing atomic power plants, since (considering the waste problem) they cant really be considered the most rational choice... For me, its more about th "when" than about the "if", and also about the "what then"!

Whenever someone states this view, they make it a bit obvious they don't actually understand it. 60 tonnes per GW year is tiny and manageable, as well as being a future resource.


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PostPosted: May 20, 2011 7:20 am 
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dezakin wrote:
derpda wrote:
And i agree with the government shutting down existing atomic power plants, since (considering the waste problem) they cant really be considered the most rational choice... For me, its more about th "when" than about the "if", and also about the "what then"!

Whenever someone states this view, they make it a bit obvious they don't actually understand it. 60 tonnes per GW year is tiny and manageable, as well as being a future resource.


Exactly. But Derpda is German - which explains delusion by default. If you live in fantasy island it can be hard to see how bizarre it is. I don't think that's a harsh thing to say - its harsh that the German public at large is incapable of doing basic arithmetic, being completely deluded by the solar frauds, resulting in large numbers of fossil fuel burning locked in indefinately with subsequent casualties and GhG emissions. Derdpa, have you ever looked at the waste stream for coal? All we ask for is compare the numbers and have a plan that adds up. Solar and wind don't add up. Replacing nuclear with coal is the only option, which increases cancer deaths, waste creation, and CO2 emissions. You should try to read up on the dismal numbers:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/lifeti ... nergy.html

viewtopic.php?f=39&t=2437

viewtopic.php?f=39&t=2608

viewtopic.php?f=39&t=2619

viewtopic.php?f=39&t=2643


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