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PostPosted: Jul 16, 2016 11:02 am 
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Joined: Sep 22, 2013 6:43 am
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Location: Prescott, AZ USA
jon wrote:
It got up to 6.9% in 2014, so probably over 7% by now. In winter it's probably one percent.
Is this 6.9% what was observed during a clear summer day? Was this over some extended period? What was the total calculated over the year? What happened when those clouds came as they frequently do in Germany? What was the percentage at night?

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PostPosted: Jul 16, 2016 12:16 pm 
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Joined: Sep 02, 2009 10:24 am
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nsche wrote:
jon wrote:
It got up to 6.9% in 2014, so probably over 7% by now. In winter it's probably one percent.
Is this 6.9% what was observed during a clear summer day? Was this over some extended period? What was the total calculated over the year? What happened when those clouds came as they frequently do in Germany? What was the percentage at night?

In 2014, 34.93 TWh out of 519.13 TWh total = 6.7%
In 2015, 36.58 TWh out of 559.23 TWh total = 6.5%

Part of the reason for the increase is the increased exports. I think the cola plants decided to stop ramping down on sunny days, and export at low prices instead.


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PostPosted: Jul 17, 2016 3:42 pm 
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Joined: Nov 14, 2013 7:47 pm
Posts: 569
Location: Iowa, USA
I saw what I believe to be a related story over at Slashdot:
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/16/ ... -australia

South Australia has policies that have encouraged the growth of unreliable energy which has had the effect of making energy prices rise. Here's an excerpt from http://www.afr.com/business/energy/sout ... 714-gq5sac to demonstrate the problem:
Quote:
The emergency measures are needed to ease punishing costs for South Australian industry as National Electricity Market (NEM) prices in the state have frequently surged above $1000 a megawatt hour this month and at one point on Tuesday hit the $14,000MWh maximum price.

Complaints from business about the extreme prices – in normal times they are below $100 – prompted the state government to ask energy company ENGIE to switch its mothballed Pelican Point gas power station back on.


This other bit should be of no surprise to anyone with even the slightest of education in economics.
Quote:
Energy experts say South Australia's heavy reliance on wind energy is compounding its problems in two ways, first by forcing the remaining baseload generators to earn more revenue in shorter periods of time when the wind isn't blowing, and secondly by forcing baseload coal and gas generators out of the market altogether.


Further explanation is from an article linked by one of the commenters.
https://decarbonisesa.com/2016/07/15/th ... -foreseen/
Quote:
Initially, the average wholesale price of electricity in South Australia declined from a spot price of > $80 MWh-1 in 2009-2010, to $42 MWh-1 in 2010-2011 (Australian Energy Regulator 2013). The decline in wholesale price was due in part to wind generators sometimes bidding at negative prices because of their ability to earn and sell renewable energy certificates to cover their costs (Australian Energy Regulator 2012). However in 2012-2013, the South Australian wholesale electricity spot price rose by over 70 % (Australian Energy Regulator 2013). The main driver of this rise was a price spike in autumn. This was unusual; autumn is a period of typically subdued demand, and the event occurred against a backdrop of generally lower demand in the National Electricity Market (Australian Energy Regulator 2013). The Australian Energy Regulator attributed the price spike to commercial decisions (i.e., cost control) from non-wind suppliers to take some generating capacity offline, which increased the wholesale price of electricity (Australian Energy Regulator 2013). The Australian Energy Regulator highlighted that the State’s reliance on wind-generated electricity had driven down spot prices, thereby eroding the returns for other generators. During this event, South Australia’s electricity imports were at their highest for six years (Australian Energy Regulator 2013). This illustrates system costs rising perversely from increasing reliance on subsidised, variable renewable energy generators whose output is uncorrelated with demand.


This shows why the reliable energy producers are leaving the market, they cannot compete with an energy source that is subsidized by the government. I know people will counter with a claim that ALL energy is subsidized by the government, which may be true. What sets wind and solar apart is that they get paid by the government to produce energy regardless of the demand. This can force prices negative for short periods, creating costs for other energy producers that they must absorb in times when the wind does not blow, and creating an incentive for industrial customers to cash in on this subsidy with wasteful practices. For example, an iron recycling plant that may not normally operate at night may have someone on the night shift be there to turn on the furnaces when prices go negative to get paid for their electricity use, they would be heating nothing but the air but they'd be paid to do it. Anyone that claims this would not happen is unimaginably naive.

This is a story being told over and over again where only the names and places are different.

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Disclaimer: I am an engineer but not a nuclear engineer, mechanical engineer, chemical engineer, or industrial engineer. My education included electrical, computer, and software engineering.


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PostPosted: Nov 18, 2016 2:52 pm 
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Joined: Nov 14, 2016 5:01 pm
Posts: 18
camiel wrote:
The article also discussed the Russian AES-2006 reactor, which could be a formidable competitor to the French-designed EPR and which has similar active and passive safety features. This reactor will also be built in Finland. To important things are mentioned that may have benefited the Russians:

- The Russians kept on building nuclear power plants during the past decades, despite economic difficulties sometimes, enabling them to maintain the engineering know-how

- The structure and offering of Rosatom, which can offer all-in-one solutions which prevents difficult dealings with all kinds of sub-contractors

See:

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/d ... ticle=true

Google Translate (English):

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... t=&act=url


I sorta ran into the EPR vs VVER comparison from another angle and came to a similar conclusion. Finland's been a pretty chilling story for who's performing and who's not in the nuclear industry and by my count the Russians have got 32 reactors under construction or in fairly solid planning since 2000. The messing around of Siemens and Areva on the joint-venture and then the breakup of Areva didn't do the EPR any favors either. Put simply the nuclear industry in the west needs to get it's act together either by pushing through to SMRs or by working out how to get projects in on time and budget.

In particular regards to Germany and it's plan I'm pretty worried. While we may be sure that solar-only won't work while the Germans are still running coal plants it'll be hard to convince them out of their delusion, power outages could shake them out of their complacency but that's unlikely to happen while they keep the coal around. Worse yet they really are stuck with coal due to Europe's apprehension about being over-dependent on Russia for natural gas which not only incurs the additional CO2 cost of using coal but the inefficiencies of using coal to load-follow vs a gas turbine. None of this is helped by the fact that the French nuclear effort is running into some trouble recently with the quality concerns about their built plants and the immense build costs of their EPRs.


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PostPosted: Nov 20, 2016 12:16 am 
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Germans are so insistent on wind and solar that they have decided to close the nuclear plants prematurely. This being the case they should store rather than export their occasional surplus.
Storage of offshore wind energy in underwater balloons is already being talked about. Perhaps they should modify the inland towers to store wind energy away from sea also.
The fatter towers could also accommodate some photovoltaic panels.


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