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 Post subject: Re: Fuel cell costs
PostPosted: Nov 09, 2016 4:11 am 
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Joined: Nov 14, 2013 7:47 pm
Posts: 569
Location: Iowa, USA
macpacheco wrote:
EVs will kill oil refining and gasoline stations worldwide,

No, it won't. Oils are still used for lubrication, heating fuels, feedstocks for plastics and fertilizers. Unless trains are electrified, ships runs from nuclear power or sails, and we stop flying aircraft and space launches then we will need oil refineries. Filling stations might diminish but they'd take a different form since the machines to do mining, farming, and construction won't run on electricity.

I grew up on a small farm. During harvest time we'd have all kinds of equipment running, a harvester, two tractors pulling wagons, two tractors loading the silos and grain bins, a truck to haul equipment, people, and food, and a small ATV for someone to keep an eye on things. Some of that stuff might be able to be electrified but not all. My parents ran a small farm, other's would have multiple harvesters, over the road tractor trailers, and many field tractors.

In small town Iowa it's not unusual to see a harvester drive into town to the filling station to top off it's diesel tanks. It'd then de driven back out to the field to keep harvesting the corn. These harvesters are not small, they will take two lanes of traffic. My dad equated driving these things to going to a second story bedroom on your house, putting a chair in front of the window, and driving the house out to the field. You take a look at how those harvesters work and then come back to me on how you will convert those to a plug-in electric.

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 Post subject: Re: Fuel cell costs
PostPosted: Nov 09, 2016 11:32 am 
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Joined: Jan 29, 2014 4:05 am
Posts: 269
Location: Vitoria-ES-Brazil
KitemanSA wrote:
macpacheco wrote:
There is zero shortage of materials to make lithium ion cells, zero. Production can increase by an order of magnitude. The bottleneck is optimizing industrial processes/building more factories.

The problem with your observation is that to get to realistic EV numbers we need 2 to 3, maybe even 4 orders of magnitude, not just one. IMHO, the best path is to go PHEV with just enough battery to go maybe 5 or 10 miles. That way we MIGHT keep it down to 1.5 OOM and have enough resource.

For me its a 20-25 years process. One order of magnitude will be a huge challenge for the whole supply chain, not just batteries.
Advances in Lithium Ion means the same raw materials will achieve higher energy capacity, and will be recycled again and again.

Last I heard there are rockets that run on hydrogen, made from natural gas. SpaceX current rocket runs on RP1 (Kerosene), but the next generation will use cryogenic methane. Plenty of rockets use hydrogen + solid rocket boosters. SRBs are also on their way out, since they are not economical for reuse.

Yeah, aircraft will be the last challenge, but since we're talking a 30 year process, there is already hydrogen engines being tested today for Mach 5 aircraft/hybrid rocket (Reaction Engines Ltd/Sabre engine). In 10-15 years the first hydrogen airplanes will begin commercial operation.

Taxi drivers here in Brazil are a telling case. Migrating from gasoline to burning natural gas halves fuel costs. Migrating from natural gas to EV halves again. And that's without solar panels.
That will be an unavoidable process, as taxi cabs migrate on mass to EVs since they run a lot of miles every day. 300 mile battery means one or two charges per day.

What really matters is miles driven by EVs. Lower fuel costs will naturally drive high mileage consumers to purchase EVs, over low mileage ones. EVs are still being purchased mostly by first adopters, and those who would otherwise buy a premium car anyways. And this is the main reason fuel cells are dead on arrival, since they don't improve fuel costs (making hydrogen, methanol or whatever then converting it back into electricity ~ 50% losses, making fuel cost per mile similar to gasoline).

I'm not saying 100% of oil will be gone, but that electricity will become mainstream and diesel/gasoline will become the niche. Over 2/3s of transportation will go electric. Fuel cells actually make sense for locomotives. Tesla already announced they will eventually be making electric buses and semis. There are startups already working on electric buses. There are plenty of bus conversions, but a dedicated EV bus will have better range and performance.

And lets not forget that Lithium Ion could improve by a factor of 3 or 4 in cost/kWh and energy density, getting better than gasoline/jet fuel. Aircraft are very weight sensitive, but combustion jets are limited by air density, electric fan jets can fly much higher, where the air is ultra thin, going supersonic, that would electric fan jets viable even with Lithium Ion twice as heavy as jet fuel per joule.

Short range electric aircraft is already here, but too limited functionality (technological demonstration only so far), in 5-10 years we should have the replacement to a 4-6 seater Cessna/Piper battery prop plane, which will have much better performance since it won't loose thrust with altitude. A C172 looses 50% of thrust from sea level to 13000ft (the highest one should fly without O2), an electric version will maintain power and fly twice as fast. Add minimal pressurization and flight at 15-18k ft is logical.

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 Post subject: Re: Fuel cell costs
PostPosted: Nov 10, 2016 3:29 pm 
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Joined: Jun 05, 2011 6:59 pm
Posts: 1326
Location: NoOPWA
macpacheco wrote:
KitemanSA wrote:
macpacheco wrote:
There is zero shortage of materials to make lithium ion cells, zero. Production can increase by an order of magnitude. The bottleneck is optimizing industrial processes/building more factories.

The problem with your observation is that to get to realistic EV numbers we need 2 to 3, maybe even 4 orders of magnitude, not just one. IMHO, the best path is to go PHEV with just enough battery to go maybe 5 or 10 miles. That way we MIGHT keep it down to 1.5 OOM and have enough resource.

For me its a 20-25 years process. One order of magnitude will be a huge challenge for the whole supply chain, not just batteries.
Advances in Lithium Ion means the same raw materials will achieve higher energy capacity, and will be recycled again and again.
20 to 25 years for one order of magnitude. So 2 to 3 millenia for all 4?

Quote:
Taxi drivers here in Brazil are a telling case. Migrating from gasoline to burning natural gas halves fuel costs. Migrating from natural gas to EV halves again. And that's without solar panels.
That will be an unavoidable process, as taxi cabs migrate on mass to EVs since they run a lot of miles every day. 300 mile battery means one or two charges per day.
In the US, the cost of the gasoline is a very small part of what we pay for gasoline. That, in the long run, won't change. It sounds like the taxi drivers are saving half by avoiding paying their fair share of the road system.

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