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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Feb 13, 2017 9:20 am 
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macpacheco wrote:
I'll tell you just one thing. By end of 2017, end of 2018, end of 2019 you'll be saying the same things, and solar/wind deployments will continue to explode.
Tesla PowerPacks/PowerWalls will drop in cost by at least 50% from now to 2020.


You can fantasize and perpetuate your delusions all you wants, but on this forum we at least attempt to try to tether ourselves to reality. If you want to keep dreaming there are thousands of other places where your delusions will be repeated and magnified, but not here.


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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Feb 13, 2017 5:28 pm 
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Lithium ion batteries will not scale to the level needed for mostly wind and solar powered grids, but sodium-sulfur might. Sulfur and alumina are already produced in the required multi-million tonne quantities, and sodium production could be readily scaled up.


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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Feb 13, 2017 8:00 pm 
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Why is it so hard to build nuclear power plants?

Answer: Cuz people are afraid of them.

What might happen if you start wide-scale of lithium ion battery use within or adjacent to substations?

Answer: They might start exploding - big time

http://www.consumerreports.org/safety-recalls/why-lithium-ion-batteries-still-explode-and-whats-being-done-to-fix-the-problem/

Why might it be hard to put large scale lithium ion batteries in populated areas?

Answer: Cuz people might be afraid of them.

The most important criteria is the health and safety of the public!


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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Feb 24, 2017 10:23 pm 
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Eino wrote:
Why is it so hard to build nuclear power plants?

Answer: Cuz people are afraid of them.

What might happen if you start wide-scale of lithium ion battery use within or adjacent to substations?

Answer: They might start exploding - big time

http://www.consumerreports.org/safety-recalls/why-lithium-ion-batteries-still-explode-and-whats-being-done-to-fix-the-problem/

Why might it be hard to put large scale lithium ion batteries in populated areas?

Answer: Cuz people might be afraid of them.

The most important criteria is the health and safety of the public!


Lithium in a battery doesn't explode. It burns.
There are over one million EVs/plug in EVs on the roads powered by Lithium batteries. Tesla alone has billions of lithium ion cells deployed in its packs. If the danger was even remotely that serious, how many EV fires a year we would have ?
There have been about a dozen Tesla fires since the very beginning. Always caused by either a car going over an object that perforates the battery pack or a serious crash. In EVERY instance when the car went over a object that perforates the pack, the car instantly detects the problem, tells the driver to pull over and exit the vehicle, people can even remove belongings from the car, cause it slowly starts to burn instead of "exploding".
And, when an EV burns, it never emits radioactivity... Apples and bananas.
If that's your best argument then you have none.
In the period a PWR/BWR goes from decision to build to operational in the USA, Lithium will have improved its energy density and cost / kWh by perhaps 200%.
No its not insanely expensive...
Australia doesn't have net metering. You buy retail and sell at a 2/3 discount. So either a solar PV owner installs 3x as much panels as he would need with net metering or he installs a big battery. Installed the battery is already cheaper than triple solar PV. And in places with ultra cheap overnight electricity the same process is usually economical, buy off peak electricity and use it throughout the day.

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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Feb 25, 2017 12:03 pm 
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macpacheco wrote:
Lithium in a battery doesn't explode. It burns.

Lithium oxide being ejected from a burning packs is still going to be rather nasty.
macpacheco wrote:
There are over one million EVs/plug in EVs on the roads powered by Lithium batteries. Tesla alone has billions of lithium ion cells deployed in its packs. If the danger was even remotely that serious, how many EV fires a year we would have ?

What is the average fleet age? I would imagine it is rather small - I would expect the number per car on the road to climb rather drastically as more and more vehicles are used for far beyond the initial design age of the battery pack.
macpacheco wrote:
In the period a PWR/BWR goes from decision to build to operational in the USA, Lithium will have improved its energy density and cost / kWh by perhaps 200%.

It can't improve its energy density by 200% - because at that point it will start to defy physics.
And cost per kilowatt savings have almost all already happened, at some point you will start to hit hard limits as defined by the chemistry and materials costs required to build the batteries.
macpacheco wrote:
No its not insanely expensive...
Australia doesn't have net metering. You buy retail and sell at a 2/3 discount. So either a solar PV owner installs 3x as much panels as he would need with net metering or he installs a big battery. Installed the battery is already cheaper than triple solar PV. And in places with ultra cheap overnight electricity the same process is usually economical, buy off peak electricity and use it throughout the day.

Net metering is a totally uneconomic proposition for a utility - if it wasn't the state forcing it to exist it would not exist anywhere.
It means you trade high demand time electricity to the user in return for low demand time electricity.
And ultra cheap overnight electricity being used throughout the day if it the ultra low cost electricity is reliably available.
In your glorious renewable future this will not be the case, the price and availability of electricity will change from night to night, hour to hour, minute to minute, second to second.
It turns into a Hunger Games-esque Tragedy of the Commons scenario where the rich are fine but the poor get screwed.


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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Feb 25, 2017 2:26 pm 
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Location: Iowa, USA
macpacheco wrote:
Lithium in a battery doesn't explode. It burns.

I'm sure a lot of Samsung customers would disagree with you.

Perhaps there is something I'm missing but I don't see how an advanced battery technology helps solar power. I do understand how it is necessary, given that solar power is inherently unreliable. Assuming we can get produce batteries that are inexpensive and large enough to be useful as a backup to a gigawatt scale solar farm, what prevents people from using this same battery technology on a nuclear power plant?

Also, this battery technology does not yet exist and may never come to be. What are we supposed to do until then? The EPA can keep writing checks to get more solar power deployed but if this battery technology is not developed, and produced in sufficient quantities, then we have a problem. As more solar power is added to the grid there needs to be more peak power reserve to manage the intermittent nature of solar power.

Much of the reduced CO2 output the EPA has seen has been the result of replacing aging coal plants with natural gas. If we deploy too much solar power before we see a sufficient advance in battery technology then we'll see people shifting the burning of natural gas from efficient combined cycle plants to inefficient turbines. This could in fact make our CO2 output increase, which has already been seen in a number of nations that have subsidized intermittent power beyond what their grid can manage.

If we do see battery technology advance significantly then these batteries could be paired with existing low CO2 output energy that is cheaper than solar, like combined cycle natural gas and nuclear, and get the load following capability from the batteries.

Solar power would have to get incredibly cheaper to be viable in any scenario that I can see. This is not exclusive to photovoltaic solar either. I've seen people talk about how we can store solar power as heat in a molten salt. If we can make this molten salt energy storage work for solar power then we can make it work for nuclear power, natural gas, or whatever.

Cheap energy storage is necessary but insufficient for solar power to be viable. What is also required is exceedingly cheap solar power. As technology advances in solar power so does its competition.

My guess is that the EPA has found out they bet on the wrong horse in this race. EPA and DOE subsidies for solar power did put a lot of people to work but what have we gained? This seems to me to be a make work project much like FDR's "New Deal" programs.

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Disclaimer: I am an engineer but not a nuclear engineer, mechanical engineer, chemical engineer, or industrial engineer. My education included electrical, computer, and software engineering.


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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Feb 27, 2017 3:02 pm 
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Another issue to consider with battery storage is that it is DC power. You will lose a lot if you need to convert from AC to DC to the batteries, then DC to AC from the batteries. If you are powering the batteries with DC from photovoltaics, then you will probably need to locate them together and still lose a lot going from DC to AC.


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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Apr 28, 2017 9:08 pm 
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Court freezes Clean Power Plan lawsuit, signaling likely end to Obama’s signature climate policy

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A federal court on Friday granted the Trump administration’s request to suspend lawsuits against the Clean Power Plan rule, signaling the likely end of President Barack Obama’s signature climate policy. The order from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia stays litigation against the Environmental Protection Agency rule for 60 days. It does not indicate whether the D.C. Circuit will return the rule to the agency, although the EPA did not ask for it to do so. Instead, the order asks for guidance on whether to send the regulation back altogether. “Pursuant to the president’s executive order, Administrator [Scott] Pruitt has already announced that EPA is reviewing the Obama Administration’s Clean Power Plan,” said agency spokesman J.P. Freire. “We are pleased that this order gives EPA the opportunity to proceed with that process.”


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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Oct 04, 2017 11:32 am 
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Trump EPA to propose repealing Obama's climate regulation: document

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The Clean Power Plan, or CPP, was challenged in court by 27 states after Obama’s administration launched it in 2015. It is currently suspended by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, which set a deadline of Friday for a status report from the EPA on how it plans to proceed.


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 Post subject: Re: EPA Clean Power Plan
PostPosted: Oct 06, 2017 7:25 pm 
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I think the clean power enthusiasts need to clean up their act. Lithium is best left to mobile devices. The vehicles had better use fuel cells and burn biofuels. Wind energy will be best stored as compressed air where hydro alternative cannot be used. Individual houses and buildings could best store PV power in flow batteries.
Base power is best left to nuclear.


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