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PostPosted: Aug 01, 2017 2:20 pm 
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Russia unrivaled in nuclear power plant exports

Interesting that Russia is dominating the nuclear reactor market, with China poised to be its competitor.

What about the West?
Quote:
This is attributed at least in part to disasters that struck two major competitors: Westinghouse Electric Co. of the United States, once a subsidiary of Toshiba, has gone bankrupt, while Areva SA of France is fighting an uphill battle to recover from stagnancy.


Areva has lost this battle, having backed a flawed, over complicated design in the EPR. Their only hope of staying in the game is to bypass large LWR technology and develop a cheaper, simpler reactor.

Any suggestions? :)
Why aren't they? Will France's new anti-nuclear stance stop them?

Same with Westinghouse, except (1) they are bankrupt, and (2) they've chosen a lead cooled design as their next generation.


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PostPosted: Aug 01, 2017 2:57 pm 
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Just this: that many countries can't/won't buy nuclear technology from Russia.


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PostPosted: Aug 02, 2017 3:15 am 
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Apart from the UK, which countries which are looking for new reactors won't buy from Russia?

Probably USA and Canada - as much to boost their own nuclear industry as for political reasons.

Poland. But Hungary doesn't seem to mind. Poland is an interesting case - though I'm not sure what the current Government plans are - they're more concerned with keeping coal mining jobs. Westinghouse might have been preferred, but if they go ahead, I suspect they'll have a Chinese design.

But the way it's going, we could be seeing Rosatom (Russia) with 50%, China with 30%, and Korea and Japan with the rest. (Excluding Hinkley C, which could be Areva's last reactor?).

China is actually quite dependent on the GDA of the Hualong One. If they get that and can still build it cheap (the ONR might require a Gold plated containment structure), then they have a very competitive product.

That still leaves Europe and the USA without a presence in this market.


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PostPosted: Aug 02, 2017 5:57 am 
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alexterrell wrote:
Apart from the UK, which countries which are looking for new reactors won't buy from Russia?

Probably USA and Canada - as much to boost their own nuclear industry as for political reasons.

Poland. But Hungary doesn't seem to mind. Poland is an interesting case - though I'm not sure what the current Government plans are - they're more concerned with keeping coal mining jobs. Westinghouse might have been preferred, but if they go ahead, I suspect they'll have a Chinese design.

But the way it's going, we could be seeing Rosatom (Russia) with 50%, China with 30%, and Korea and Japan with the rest. (Excluding Hinkley C, which could be Areva's last reactor?).

China is actually quite dependent on the GDA of the Hualong One. If they get that and can still build it cheap (the ONR might require a Gold plated containment structure), then they have a very competitive product.

That still leaves Europe and the USA without a presence in this market.



Also don't forget the Finns. Finland, a western country and EU-member, is going to build the new Russian-designed VVER/AES-2006 at Hanhikivi. This might not please some in the EU for geopolitical reasons. The Czechs also seem very interested in the VVER and the Czechs have also the capability to manufacture many of the components domestically for this reactor: Skoda JS for the nuclear island and Doosan Skoda Power for the turbine/generator island. So, the dependency on Russia is very much reduced. Westinghouse can supply the fuel for VVERs, I believe.

The Poles have shown interest in the Hualong One reactor. The French will likely not be pleased, if the Poles choose this reactor, because the Hualong One is basically an improved version of a French design.


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PostPosted: Aug 02, 2017 7:29 pm 
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Kirk Sorensen wrote:
Just this: that many countries can't/won't buy nuclear technology from Russia.


Yup, but then most of those countries aren't getting into much of a nuclear build program, the biggest was in the US I think and that's starting to fall apart due to Westinghouse, so it's hardly a vote of confidence in the not-Russian technology or firms so much as protectionism over political differences.

This is made worse still when you start to consider the long-term consequences.

Energy is a key driver of any economy and it's getting more important over time and, if nuclear is as good as we think it is as a low carbon energy producer and we eventually get around to being reasonably serious about reducing carbon emissions this is going to leave the west at a cost disadvantage for energy costs with the Russians and all their customers, sooner or later the 50%+ more that the west spends on a nuclear build ( extremely conservatively ) has to get passed on to the consumer after all.

None of this means there aren't ample opportunities to change course, either in one or another western firm waking up/getting it's act together or simply buying from the Russians/Chinese but it's not exactly a rosy picture. For the nuclear industry in the west it's basically banking on protectionism or perhaps one day designing it's way out of some huge build-management disadvantages they have next to Rosatom.


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PostPosted: Aug 02, 2017 8:27 pm 
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With the interest rates available to western states, the capital charge of nuclear is negligible given its long life.

All it takes is the political will.


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PostPosted: Aug 03, 2017 1:17 am 
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Russians are selling more reactors due to lower capital cost. Some people may not buy them due to politics or protectionism. In case of Us of A, it may also be lower cost of gas and generating plants. It is a fact that they have captured the market share.
My frequent suggestion of Russia or China selling power from their floating reactors is not entirely a joke. Costs matter.


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PostPosted: Aug 06, 2017 10:41 pm 
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They could really own the downscale section of the market if they got that nuclear power barge mass produced.


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PostPosted: Aug 07, 2017 7:06 pm 
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NUSCALE's SMR might be a natural fit to a nuclear barge. The barge would deliver the construction, pre-built. The SMRs are small enough to ship separately.


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PostPosted: Aug 07, 2017 8:38 pm 
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Also don't count out the Canadians - they recently recieved an order for another unit.
And whilst that is small fry it is another opportunity to demonstrate their reputation for deliver units on time and on schedule.

CANMOX is going nowhere, but then none of the alternatives are either - so if Atucha 3 can be completed on time and on schedule then maybe that will change.

And in all honesty, I would be more comfortable with the UK being dependant on a Canadian design than virtually any other non British nationality, even American.


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PostPosted: Aug 17, 2017 2:08 pm 
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E Ireland wrote:
Also don't count out the Canadians - they recently recieved an order for another unit.
And whilst that is small fry it is another opportunity to demonstrate their reputation for deliver units on time and on schedule.

CANMOX is going nowhere, but then none of the alternatives are either - so if Atucha 3 can be completed on time and on schedule then maybe that will change.

And in all honesty, I would be more comfortable with the UK being dependant on a Canadian design than virtually any other non British nationality, even American.


As a Canadian I'd be thrilled if we managed to buck the trend in nuclear construction in the west, I know the CANDU builds in China went pretty well but I can't help but worry that even that was quite a while ago now and we might have a hard time pulling off the same trick elsewhere. That said CANDU has some very substantial design differences from just about every other western reactor out there and that may serve to avoid some of the particular pitfalls that seem to be catching the PWR builds.

Your statement about UK dependence also makes sense to me if for no other reason then having a vendor operating in a country with a more co-operative ( apparently ) regulator and a major political power ( Province of Ontario ) willing to support the technology seems more stable then the US right now.


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PostPosted: Oct 28, 2017 5:03 pm 
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Russia currently has contracts to build 34 reactors in 13 countries, with an estimated total value of $300 billion.

Countries in which Russia is building a reactor, or in serious talks: Egypt, Bangladesh, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, India, China, Hungary, Bulgaria, Armenia, Iran, Turkey, Finland, South Africa, Brazil, Belarus.

I may have missed some. It's certainly not 'everyone' but it includes 2 countries with about 38 % of the Worlds population.


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PostPosted: Oct 28, 2017 7:48 pm 
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Russian exports consist mainly of their VVER, the Russian for PWR. The French version has not been a success lately with many EPR under construction but none completed and working. Westinghouse has sunk in insolvency. And Russians may be shortly ready with fast reactors. Good for nuclear power.


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PostPosted: Jan 15, 2018 10:42 am 
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jagdish wrote:
Russian exports consist mainly of their VVER, the Russian for PWR. The French version has not been a success lately with many EPR under construction but none completed and working. Westinghouse has sunk in insolvency. And Russians may be shortly ready with fast reactors. Good for nuclear power.


May be off-topic, but Russia has serious plans for both sodium-cooled (BN1200) and lead-cooled reactors (BREST 300 and then larger), with a lot of overlap. Why not one or the other?


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PostPosted: Jan 15, 2018 8:08 pm 
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Only possibility of beating Russia in cost is China like many other manufactures, once they get in export mode. People really in want of energy are in Asia and Africa, with no hesitation of an Asian or Russian supplier. Things are proceeding logically. The bright boys of Europe and N America just have to find another disruptive idea.


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