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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 7:58 am 
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Thyroid cancer is the most linked cancer to Chernobyl's radioiodine emissions. However in digging for data on this I found to my surprise that much of this may be nonsense.

https://www.cancercare.on.ca/cms/one.as ... geId=63896

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Turns out that thyroid cancer is on the rise in many countries and that the rise is relatively large (multiples!). The Canadian site attributes increased detection methods as the main source. It mentions for example no change in the actual sources such as iodine in diet, ionizing radiation etc in Ontario. In other words there may not be more cancer it could be a detection artifact. Certainly in Chernobyl area there has been very tight screening and as the saying goes, if you look for something hard enough you'll find it.

I found further evidence to this spurious correlation to ionizing radiation in the following:

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Belarus is much closer to Chernobyl than most of Russia (it is an enormous country) but the Russian increase in thyroid cancer is higher than Belarus! And Ukraine is very slight in increase even though it is very close. Ukraine increase is broadly similar to the Canadian data! Clearly the denominator "as a result of the Chernobyl accident" is a blanket and largely unsupported and even misleading statement!

Could it be that this supposed strong link to Chernobyl ionizing radiation is wholly or at least largely a statistical artifact?


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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 8:09 am 
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Further evidence:

http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/3 ... nsion.html

So, the Belarus age corrected thyroid cancer incidence per 100,000 people is consistently slightly lower since Chernobyl than the Ontario data, for both men and women.

In other words... correlation, no causation.


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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 9:57 am 
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So far, the rise in Fukusima "cancers" can be attributed to scan sensitivity. But I haven't heard of the Chernobyl cluster being classified as such. The timing and subsequent fall-off suggests more than just correlation.

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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 9:59 am 
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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 10:03 am 
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KitemanSA wrote:
So far, the rise in Fukusima "cancers" can be attributed to scan sensitivity. But I haven't heard of the Chernobyl cluster being classified as such. The timing and subsequent fall-off suggests more than just correlation.


There appears a falloff in children but a general rise in total thyroid cancers. I'm looking for non chernobyl area thyroid cancer data in children - any good source?


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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 10:09 am 
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Could the difference between Belarus and US adults be because there are fewer thyroids/adult in Belarus? After all, a lot of them got eliminated after the Chernobyl accident. |rolls eyes|

Then again, that which does not kill you, makes you stronger, a.k.a.


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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 11:54 am 
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Could the difference between Belarus and US adults be because there are fewer thyroids/adult in Belarus? After all, a lot of them got eliminated after the Chernobyl accident. |rolls eyes|


A bizarre and entertaining theory yet easy to check.

The numbers of thyroid cancers are very similar between US, Canada and Belarus. So no, there are similar number of thyroids per person in Belarus as there are in US or Canada. Even if there was a large difference somehow, for sake of argument assuming a massive 50 cases/100,000 extra for 25 years, this only adds up to 0.125% fewer thyroids per person.

Thyroid cancer is rare, fortunately.


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PostPosted: Feb 23, 2015 11:56 am 
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Quote:
Then again, that which does not kill you, makes you stronger, a.k.a.


Thyroid cancer has a very high survival rate, around 99%. It is possible to live without a thyroid but it is not pleasant so I'd disagree with you here. Removing entire organs doesn't make you stronger.


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PostPosted: Feb 26, 2015 1:08 am 
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Cyril R wrote:
Quote:
Then again, that which does not kill you, makes you stronger, a.k.a.


Thyroid cancer has a very high survival rate, around 99%. It is possible to live without a thyroid but it is not pleasant so I'd disagree with you here. Removing entire organs doesn't make you stronger.

They point was, those who may have gotten a dose without getting the cancer while young may be resistant to the cancer while older.

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PostPosted: Feb 26, 2015 6:52 am 
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KitemanSA wrote:
Cyril R wrote:
Quote:
Then again, that which does not kill you, makes you stronger, a.k.a.


Thyroid cancer has a very high survival rate, around 99%. It is possible to live without a thyroid but it is not pleasant so I'd disagree with you here. Removing entire organs doesn't make you stronger.

They point was, those who may have gotten a dose without getting the cancer while young may be resistant to the cancer while older.


Ok. That's possible. But thyroid cancer among adults is rising just like it is in north america. Whereas in children near Belarus etc it is dropping in recent years.


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