Electrical Generating Capacity Graph
For some time now, I’ve been working on a simulation of our electrical generation system, and as part of that I’ve fed in a lot of data about nuclear and coal-fired powerplants into a database. The simulation isn’t quite finished yet, but I wanted to share a very interesting observation.
How many times have you heard that “Three Mile Island was when we stopped building nuclear reactors…”
I’ve heard it a lot. And it turns out to be very untrue. The incident at Three Mile Island-2 happened in March of 1979. Take a look at this graph:
Specifically, look how much capacity was added AFTER 1979, both in PWRs (pressurized-water reactors) and BWRs (boiling-water reactors). About half of all the PWR capacity we have today came about AFTER TMI-2, and nearly that much of BWR capacity. So we kept building and commissioning new nuclear reactors well after TMI-2, and even into the 1990s. But this graph also shows the results of scheduled shutdowns of nuclear reactors (all the dates came from the EIA website). Many of these reactors will get license extension but you can see the general trend.
Now look at this data:
There is no equivalent “EIA” website where you can look up the shutdown dates for coal-fired powerplants, and these aren’t even all the coal plants in the country, only the biggest ones. Look how much coal-fired capacity came online in the 1970s. Staggering, isn’t it? And even into the 1980s lots of coal-fired capacity came on the grid. But in the 1990s it nearly stopped.
I don’t know how many of these coal-fired plants will be shutdown in the future, but you can see where the trends are going with regards to coal and nuclear. We’re going to need to build nuclear plants fast just to “hold our ground”, and if we want to advance against coal we’re going to need to build a lot faster. That’s why we have to get capital costs down for new nuclear plants and speed their construction, and that’s where the advances inherent in the liquid-fluoride thorium reactor make such a profound difference.
My understanding is that no reactors were commissioned after TMI-2, though several were completed, with the last becoming critical around 1985. The increase in capacity is mostly due to capacity improvements at existing plants. Perhaps that's what you're saying and I'm misunderstanding…?
Why should your data about shutdown dates of coal plants only contain the largest ones? What did you use for your data source specifically? I spend plenty of time prowling the EIA available data, and they have a database of nearly all operating power plants as of 2008, if you used this as the basis for your graph, then I don't see why the proviso would be necessary at all.
Until recently no new nuke plants were ordered since TMI. It does not cost very much to order a nuke plant. Think of it like paying for a place in line at the world series. If your team has a bad year, you will stop paying to be in line. Why are some paying for a place in the line in for new reactors? Look at the price of coal and natural gas.
What happened was that project demand for new capacity dropped off. About one third of canceled orders for nuke plants occurred before TMI and before construction started.
Also missing from the curve is natural capacity additions.
“liquid-fluoride thorium reactor make such a profound difference.”
Wow, is that a stretch of logic. I am rather skeptical of those who do not have a clue about the reason of the past projecting the future with such confidence.
I believe that the term 'commissioned' is used in the same sense that that term is used in the US Navy. That is the date that the plant is complete and goes active. In this regard at least the following US nuclear plants were commissioned after TMI. Palo Verde (three units initial operation 1986 and 1988) South Texas Project (two units in 1988 and 1989) and the Comanche Peak plant (two units in 1990 and 1993)
In addition TVA is currently completing the Watts Bar 2 plant (construction restarted in 2007 projected completion date 2013).
FYI you can also check out construction progress on the new AP1000 units at the Vogtle and VC Summer sites on the Westinghouse AP1000 web information page http://www.ap1000.westinghousenuclear.com/ap1000_…. It is also fun to see pictures there of the progress on the 4 AP1000 units under construction in Chins.
Ed
Kirk, you don't have to fight coal to sell nuclear. Non-OPEC oil production is falling out of bed, that will cause the oil price to rise a lot over the rest of the decade. Coal-to-liquids becomes economic at US$60/bbl. Coal can be considered to be diesel that hasn't gone through a Fischer-Tropsch plant yet. It will soon be too valuable to burn in a power plant. The Sierra Club should be thanked for stopping the construction of coal-fired power plants. That coal needs to be saved for a higher purpose. So, you don't need to fight coal to sell a nuclear future. You don't have an enemy (coal), you have a friend – the oil price.
Here's the data I used in the model, sorted by startup date, with startup dates for the newer reactors being fairly speculative. But the rest of the data comes from the EIA website:
<code>
REACTOR TYPE MWE START STOP
Shippingport-1 PWR 60 12/23/1957 10/1/1982
Dresden-1 BWR 197 7/4/1960 10/31/1978
YankeeRowe-1 PWR 167 1/1/1961 2/26/1992
Indian Point-1 PWR 275 3/26/1962 10/31/1974
ConnYankee-1 PWR 582 1/1/1968 7/22/1996
San Onofre-1 PWR 436 1/1/1968 11/30/1992
Nine Mile Point-1 BWR 621 12/1/1969 8/22/2029
Oyster Creek-1 BWR 619 12/1/1969 4/9/2029
Dresden-2 BWR 867 6/9/1970 12/22/2029
Ginna-1 PWR 498 7/1/1970 9/18/2029
Point Beach-1 PWR 512 12/21/1970 10/5/2030
Millstone-1 BWR 660 12/28/1970 11/1/1995
Robinson-2 PWR 710 3/7/1971 7/31/2030
Monticello-1 BWR 572 6/30/1971 9/8/2030
Dresden-3 BWR 867 11/16/1971 1/12/2031
Palisades-1 PWR 778 12/31/1971 3/24/2031
Point Beach-2 PWR 514 10/1/1972 3/8/2033
Vermont Yankee-1 BWR 620 11/30/1972 3/21/2012
Pilgrim-1 BWR 685 12/1/1972 6/8/2012
Turkey Point-1 PWR 693 12/14/1972 7/19/2032
Surry-1 PWR 799 12/22/1972 5/25/2032
Maine Yankee-1 PWR 900 12/28/1972 12/6/1996
Quad Cities-1 BWR 867 2/18/1973 12/14/2032
Quad Cities-2 BWR 867 3/10/1973 12/14/2032
Surry-2 PWR 799 5/1/1973 1/29/2033
Zion-1 PWR 1040 6/1/1973 1/1/1998
Oconee-1 PWR 846 7/15/1973 2/6/2033
Turkey Point-2 PWR 693 9/7/1973 4/10/2033
Fort Calhoun-1 PWR 482 9/26/1973 8/9/2033
Zion-2 PWR 1040 12/1/1973 1/1/1998
Prairie Island-1 PWR 551 12/16/1973 8/9/2013
Kewaunee-1 PWR 556 6/16/1974 12/21/2013
Cooper-1 BWR 758 7/1/1974 1/18/2014
Peach Bottom-1 BWR 1112 7/5/1974 8/8/2033
Browns Ferry-1 BWR 1065 8/1/1974 12/20/2033
Indian Point-2 PWR 1020 8/1/1974 9/28/2013
Three Mile Island-1 PWR 786 9/2/1974 4/19/2014
Oconee-2 PWR 846 9/9/1974 10/6/2033
Oconee-3 PWR 846 12/16/1974 7/19/2034
ArkansasNuclearOne-1 PWR 843 12/19/1974 5/20/2034
Prairie Island-2 PWR 545 12/21/1974 10/29/2014
Peach Bottom-2 BWR 1112 12/23/1974 7/2/2034
Duane Arnold-1 BWR 580 2/1/1975 2/21/2014
Browns Ferry-2 BWR 1104 3/1/1975 6/28/2034
Rancho Seco-1 PWR 913 4/17/1975 6/7/1989
Calvert Cliffs-1 PWR 873 5/8/1975 7/31/2034
Fitzpatrick-1 BWR 852 7/28/1975 10/17/2034
DC Cook-1 PWR 1009 8/28/1975 10/25/2034
Brunswick-2 BWR 937 11/3/1975 12/27/2034
Millstone-2 PWR 877 12/26/1975 7/31/2035
Hatch-1 BWR 876 12/31/1975 8/6/2034
Trojan-1 PWR 1130 5/20/1976 1/1/1992
Indian Point-3 PWR 1025 8/30/1976 12/15/2015
Beaver Valley-1 PWR 892 10/1/1976 1/29/2016
St Lucie-1 PWR 839 12/21/1976 3/1/2036
Browns Ferry-3 BWR 1105 3/1/1977 7/2/2036
CrystalRiver3 PWR 838 3/13/1977 12/3/2016
Brunswick-1 BWR 938 3/18/1977 9/8/2036
Calvert Cliffs-2 PWR 862 4/1/1977 8/13/2036
Salem-1 PWR 1174 6/30/1977 8/13/2016
Farley-1 PWR 851 12/1/1977 6/25/2037
North Anna-1 PWR 903 6/6/1978 4/1/2038
DC Cook-2 PWR 1009 7/1/1978 12/23/2037
Davis-Besse-1 PWR 879 7/31/1978 4/22/2017
Three Mile Island-2 PWR 906 12/30/1978 3/29/1979
Hatch-2 BWR 883 9/5/1979 6/13/2038
ArkansasNuclearOne-2 PWR 995 3/26/1980 7/17/2038
North Anna-2 PWR 903 12/14/1980 8/21/2040
Sequoyah-1 PWR 1148 7/1/1981 9/17/2020
Farley-2 PWR 860 7/30/1981 3/31/2041
Salem-2 PWR 1130 10/13/1981 4/18/2020
Sequoyah-2 PWR 1126 6/1/1982 9/15/2021
McGuire-1 PWR 1100 12/1/1982 6/12/2041
Susquehanna-1 BWR 1149 6/8/1983 7/17/2022
San Onofre-2 PWR 1070 8/8/1983 2/16/2022
St Lucie-2 PWR 839 8/8/1983 4/6/2043
LaSalle-1 BWR 1118 1/1/1984 4/17/2022
Summer-1 PWR 966 1/1/1984 8/6/2042
McGuire-2 PWR 1100 3/1/1984 3/3/2043
San Onofre-3 PWR 1080 4/1/1984 11/15/2022
LaSalle-2 BWR 1120 10/19/1984 12/16/2023
Columbia-1 BWR 1225 12/13/1984 12/20/2023
Callaway-1 PWR 1190 12/19/1984 10/18/2024
Susquehanna-2 BWR 1140 2/12/1985 3/23/2024
DiabloCanyon-1 PWR 1122 5/7/1985 11/2/2024
Catawba-1 PWR 1129 6/29/1985 12/5/2043
Grand Gulf-1 BWR 1268 7/1/1985 11/1/2024
Wolf Creek-1 PWR 1166 9/3/1985 3/11/2045
Byron-1 PWR 1164 9/16/1985 10/31/2024
Waterford-1 PWR 1157 9/24/1985 12/18/2024
Palo Verde-3 PWR 1247 1/8/1986 11/25/2027
Palo Verde-1 PWR 1311 1/28/1986 6/1/2025
Limerick-1 BWR 1134 2/1/1986 10/26/2024
DiabloCanyon-2 PWR 1118 3/13/1986 8/20/2025
Millstone-3 PWR 1145 4/23/1986 11/25/2045
River Bend-1 PWR 970 6/16/1986 8/29/2025
Catawba-2 PWR 1129 8/19/1986 12/5/2043
Palo Verde-2 PWR 1314 9/19/1986 4/24/2026
Hope Creek-1 BWR 1061 12/20/1986 4/11/2026
Harris-1 PWR 900 5/2/1987 10/24/2046
Vogtle-1 PWR 1109 6/1/1987 1/16/2027
Byron-2 PWR 1136 8/2/1987 11/6/2026
Beaver Valley-2 PWR 846 11/17/1987 5/27/2027
Perry-1 BWR 1245 11/18/1987 3/18/2026
Clinton-1 BWR 1043 11/24/1987 9/29/2026
Fermi-2 BWR 1122 1/23/1988 3/20/2025
Nine Mile Point-2 BWR 1140 3/11/1988 10/31/2046
Braidwood-1 PWR 1178 7/29/1988 10/17/2026
South Texas Project-1 PWR 1280 8/25/1988 8/20/2027
Braidwood-2 PWR 1152 10/17/1988 12/18/2027
Vogtle-2 PWR 1127 5/20/1989 2/9/2029
South Texas Project-2 PWR 1280 6/19/1989 12/15/2028
Limerick-2 BWR 1134 1/8/1990 6/22/2029
ComanchePeak-1 PWR 1150 8/13/1990 2/8/2030
Seabrook-1 PWR 1245 8/19/1990 10/17/2026
ComanchePeak-2 PWR 1150 8/3/1993 2/2/2033
Watts Bar-1 PWR 1123 5/27/1996 11/9/2035
Watts Bar-2 PWR 1123 1/1/2012 1/1/2042
Vogtle-3 PWR 1200 1/1/2016 1/1/2056
Bellefonte-1 PWR 1256 1/1/2017 1/1/2057
Vogtle-4 PWR 1200 1/1/2017 1/1/2057
Bellefonte-2 PWR 1256 1/1/2021 1/1/2061</code>
If anyone knows how to adjust the previous comment in a way that preserves the fixed-pitch nature of the data (including tabs) please let me know. I tried the [code],[/code] tags and that didn't work.
another try:
<code>
REACTOR………..TYPE….MWE…..START……..STOP
Shippingport-1…..PWR…..60…12/23/1957…10/01/1982
Dresden-1……….BWR….197…07/04/1960…10/31/1978
YankeeRowe-1…….PWR….167…01/01/1961…02/26/1992
</code>
Right, HTML 101, all white space is ignored and treated as a single space …so use dots….. Should have remembered that one!
Please delete earlier attempts, and this if it doesn't work, of course.
<code>REACTOR……………TYPE……MWE……..START………..STOP
——————————————————————-
Shippingport-1………PWR…….60……12/23/1957…….10/1/1982
Dresden-1…………..BWR……197……..7/4/1960……10/31/1978
YankeeRowe-1………..PWR……167……..1/1/1961…….2/26/1992
Indian Point-1………PWR……275…….3/26/1962……10/31/1974
ConnYankee-1………..PWR……582……..1/1/1968…….7/22/1996
San Onofre-1………..PWR……436……..1/1/1968……11/30/1992
Nine Mile Point-1……BWR……621…….12/1/1969…….8/22/2029
Oyster Creek-1………BWR……619…….12/1/1969……..4/9/2029
Dresden-2…………..BWR……867……..6/9/1970……12/22/2029
Ginna-1…………….PWR……498……..7/1/1970…….9/18/2029
Point Beach-1……….PWR……512……12/21/1970…….10/5/2030
Millstone-1…………BWR……660……12/28/1970…….11/1/1995
Robinson-2………….PWR……710……..3/7/1971…….7/31/2030
Monticello-1………..BWR……572…….6/30/1971……..9/8/2030
Dresden-3…………..BWR……867……11/16/1971…….1/12/2031
Palisades-1…………PWR……778……12/31/1971…….3/24/2031
Point Beach-2……….PWR……514…….10/1/1972……..3/8/2033
Vermont Yankee-1…….BWR……620……11/30/1972…….3/21/2012
Pilgrim-1…………..BWR……685…….12/1/1972……..6/8/2012
Turkey Point-1………PWR……693……12/14/1972…….7/19/2032
Surry-1…………….PWR……799……12/22/1972…….5/25/2032
Maine Yankee-1………PWR……900……12/28/1972…….12/6/1996
Quad Cities-1……….BWR……867…….2/18/1973……12/14/2032
Quad Cities-2……….BWR……867…….3/10/1973……12/14/2032
Surry-2…………….PWR……799……..5/1/1973…….1/29/2033
Zion-1……………..PWR…..1040……..6/1/1973……..1/1/1998
Oconee-1……………PWR……846…….7/15/1973……..2/6/2033
Turkey Point-2………PWR……693……..9/7/1973…….4/10/2033
Fort Calhoun-1………PWR……482…….9/26/1973……..8/9/2033
Zion-2……………..PWR…..1040…….12/1/1973……..1/1/1998
Prairie Island-1…….PWR……551……12/16/1973……..8/9/2013
Kewaunee-1………….PWR……556…….6/16/1974……12/21/2013
Cooper-1……………BWR……758……..7/1/1974…….1/18/2014
Peach Bottom-1………BWR…..1112……..7/5/1974……..8/8/2033
Browns Ferry-1………BWR…..1065……..8/1/1974……12/20/2033
Indian Point-2………PWR…..1020……..8/1/1974…….9/28/2013
Three Mile Island-1….PWR……786……..9/2/1974…….4/19/2014
Oconee-2……………PWR……846……..9/9/1974…….10/6/2033
Oconee-3……………PWR……846……12/16/1974…….7/19/2034
ArkansasNuclearOne-1…PWR……843……12/19/1974…….5/20/2034
Prairie Island-2…….PWR……545……12/21/1974……10/29/2014
Peach Bottom-2………BWR…..1112……12/23/1974……..7/2/2034
Duane Arnold-1………BWR……580……..2/1/1975…….2/21/2014
Browns Ferry-2………BWR…..1104……..3/1/1975…….6/28/2034
Rancho Seco-1……….PWR……913…….4/17/1975……..6/7/1989
Calvert Cliffs-1…….PWR……873……..5/8/1975…….7/31/2034
Fitzpatrick-1……….BWR……852…….7/28/1975……10/17/2034
DC Cook-1…………..PWR…..1009…….8/28/1975……10/25/2034
Brunswick-2…………BWR……937…….11/3/1975……12/27/2034
Millstone-2…………PWR……877……12/26/1975…….7/31/2035
Hatch-1…………….BWR……876……12/31/1975……..8/6/2034
Trojan-1……………PWR…..1130…….5/20/1976……..1/1/1992
Indian Point-3………PWR…..1025…….8/30/1976……12/15/2015
Beaver Valley-1……..PWR……892…….10/1/1976…….1/29/2016
St Lucie-1………….PWR……839……12/21/1976……..3/1/2036
Browns Ferry-3………BWR…..1105……..3/1/1977……..7/2/2036
CrystalRiver3……….PWR……838…….3/13/1977…….12/3/2016
Brunswick-1…………BWR……938…….3/18/1977……..9/8/2036
Calvert Cliffs-2…….PWR……862……..4/1/1977…….8/13/2036
Salem-1…………….PWR…..1174…….6/30/1977…….8/13/2016
Farley-1……………PWR……851…….12/1/1977…….6/25/2037
North Anna-1………..PWR……903……..6/6/1978……..4/1/2038
DC Cook-2…………..PWR…..1009……..7/1/1978……12/23/2037
Davis-Besse-1……….PWR……879…….7/31/1978…….4/22/2017
Three Mile Island-2….PWR……906……12/30/1978…….3/29/1979
Hatch-2…………….BWR……883……..9/5/1979…….6/13/2038
ArkansasNuclearOne-2…PWR……995…….3/26/1980…….7/17/2038
North Anna-2………..PWR……903……12/14/1980…….8/21/2040
Sequoyah-1………….PWR…..1148……..7/1/1981…….9/17/2020
Farley-2……………PWR……860…….7/30/1981…….3/31/2041
Salem-2…………….PWR…..1130……10/13/1981…….4/18/2020
Sequoyah-2………….PWR…..1126……..6/1/1982…….9/15/2021
McGuire-1…………..PWR…..1100…….12/1/1982…….6/12/2041
Susquehanna-1……….BWR…..1149……..6/8/1983…….7/17/2022
San Onofre-2………..PWR…..1070……..8/8/1983…….2/16/2022
St Lucie-2………….PWR……839……..8/8/1983……..4/6/2043
LaSalle-1…………..BWR…..1118……..1/1/1984…….4/17/2022
Summer-1……………PWR……966……..1/1/1984……..8/6/2042
McGuire-2…………..PWR…..1100……..3/1/1984……..3/3/2043
San Onofre-3………..PWR…..1080……..4/1/1984……11/15/2022
LaSalle-2…………..BWR…..1120……10/19/1984……12/16/2023
Columbia-1………….BWR…..1225……12/13/1984……12/20/2023
Callaway-1………….PWR…..1190……12/19/1984……10/18/2024
Susquehanna-2……….BWR…..1140…….2/12/1985…….3/23/2024
DiabloCanyon-1………PWR…..1122……..5/7/1985…….11/2/2024
Catawba-1…………..PWR…..1129…….6/29/1985…….12/5/2043
Grand Gulf-1………..BWR…..1268……..7/1/1985…….11/1/2024
Wolf Creek-1………..PWR…..1166……..9/3/1985…….3/11/2045
Byron-1…………….PWR…..1164……..9/16/1985…..10/31/2024
Waterford-1…………PWR…..1157……..9/24/1985…..12/18/2024
Palo Verde-3………..PWR…..1247………1/8/1986…..11/25/2027
Palo Verde-1………..PWR…..1311……..1/28/1986…….6/1/2025
Limerick-1………….BWR…..1134………2/1/1986…..10/26/2024
DiabloCanyon-2………PWR…..1118……..3/13/1986……8/20/2025
Millstone-3…………PWR…..1145……..4/23/1986…..11/25/2045
River Bend-1………..PWR……970……..6/16/1986……8/29/2025
Catawba-2…………..PWR…..1129……..8/19/1986……12/5/2043
Palo Verde-2………..PWR…..1314……..9/19/1986……4/24/2026
Hope Creek-1………..BWR…..1061…….12/20/1986……4/11/2026
Harris-1……………PWR……900………5/2/1987…..10/24/2046
Vogtle-1……………PWR…..1109………6/1/1987……1/16/2027
Byron-2…………….PWR…..1136………8/2/1987……11/6/2026
Beaver Valley-2……..PWR……846…….11/17/1987……5/27/2027
Perry-1…………….BWR…..1245…….11/18/1987……3/18/2026
Clinton-1…………..BWR…..1043…….11/24/1987……9/29/2026
Fermi-2…………….BWR…..1122……..1/23/1988……3/20/2025
Nine Mile Point-2……BWR…..1140……..3/11/1988…..10/31/2046
Braidwood-1…………PWR…..1178……..7/29/1988…..10/17/2026
South Texas Project-1..PWR…..1280……..8/25/1988……8/20/2027
Braidwood-2…………PWR…..1152…….10/17/1988…..12/18/2027
Vogtle-2……………PWR…..1127……..5/20/1989…….2/9/2029
South Texas Project-2..PWR…..1280……..6/19/1989…..12/15/2028
Limerick-2………….BWR…..1134………1/8/1990……6/22/2029
ComanchePeak-1………PWR…..1150……..8/13/1990…….2/8/2030
Seabrook-1………….PWR…..1245……..8/19/1990…..10/17/2026
ComanchePeak-2………PWR…..1150………8/3/1993…….2/2/2033
Watts Bar-1…………PWR…..1123……..5/27/1996……11/9/2035
Watts Bar-2…………PWR…..1123………1/1/2012…….1/1/2042
Vogtle-3……………PWR…..1200………1/1/2016…….1/1/2056
Bellefonte-1………..PWR…..1256………1/1/2017…….1/1/2057
Vogtle-4……………PWR…..1200………1/1/2017…….1/1/2057
Bellefonte-2………..PWR…..1256………1/1/2021…….1/1/2061</code>
Looks like some table coding works, some does not
__REACTOR__ _Type_ __MWe______Start____ ____Stop____
Shippingport-1 PWR 6012/23/1957 10/01/1982
Dresden-1 BWR 19707/04/1960 10/31/1978
YankeeRowe-1 PWR 16701/01/1961 02/26/1992
I say it wasn't TMI, but Shoreham Long Island that caused the cessation of building new power plants. It was to be an image of the $200 million Millstone plant, but cost over $ 6 billion. In the late 1980s Governor Cuomo signed papers that shut down the plant (operating at 5%), claiming the evacuation procedures were inadequate, and wiping out $6 billion with the stroke of an unguided pen.
Who would invest billions that could be wiped out on a political whim?
Cuomo had just been elected Governor. What do you think Shumlin will try to do?