Electrical Generating Capacity Graph

Aug 23, 2010
by Kirk Sorensen
10 Comments

For some time now, I’ve been working on a simulation of our electrical generation system, and as part of that I’ve fed in a lot of data about nuclear and coal-fired powerplants into a database. The simulation isn’t quite finished yet, but I wanted to share a very interesting observation.

How many times have you heard that “Three Mile Island was when we stopped building nuclear reactors…”

I’ve heard it a lot. And it turns out to be very untrue. The incident at Three Mile Island-2 happened in March of 1979. Take a look at this graph:

Specifically, look how much capacity was added AFTER 1979, both in PWRs (pressurized-water reactors) and BWRs (boiling-water reactors). About half of all the PWR capacity we have today came about AFTER TMI-2, and nearly that much of BWR capacity. So we kept building and commissioning new nuclear reactors well after TMI-2, and even into the 1990s. But this graph also shows the results of scheduled shutdowns of nuclear reactors (all the dates came from the EIA website). Many of these reactors will get license extension but you can see the general trend.

Now look at this data:

There is no equivalent “EIA” website where you can look up the shutdown dates for coal-fired powerplants, and these aren’t even all the coal plants in the country, only the biggest ones. Look how much coal-fired capacity came online in the 1970s. Staggering, isn’t it? And even into the 1980s lots of coal-fired capacity came on the grid. But in the 1990s it nearly stopped.

I don’t know how many of these coal-fired plants will be shutdown in the future, but you can see where the trends are going with regards to coal and nuclear. We’re going to need to build nuclear plants fast just to “hold our ground”, and if we want to advance against coal we’re going to need to build a lot faster. That’s why we have to get capital costs down for new nuclear plants and speed their construction, and that’s where the advances inherent in the liquid-fluoride thorium reactor make such a profound difference.

10 Comments
  1. Carl Lumma August 23, 2010 at 12:13 pm Reply
    My understanding is that no reactors were commissioned after TMI-2, though several were completed, with the last becoming critical around 1985. The increase in capacity is mostly due to capacity improvements at existing plants. Perhaps that's what you're saying and I'm misunderstanding...?
  2. Alan August 23, 2010 at 12:31 pm Reply
    Why should your data about shutdown dates of coal plants only contain the largest ones? What did you use for your data source specifically? I spend plenty of time prowling the EIA available data, and they have a database of nearly all operating power plants as of 2008, if you used this as the basis for your graph, then I don't see why the proviso would be necessary at all.
  3. Kit P August 23, 2010 at 12:39 pm Reply
    Until recently no new nuke plants were ordered since TMI. It does not cost very much to order a nuke plant. Think of it like paying for a place in line at the world series. If your team has a bad year, you will stop paying to be in line. Why are some paying for a place in the line in for new reactors? Look at the price of coal and natural gas. What happened was that project demand for new capacity dropped off. About one third of canceled orders for nuke plants occurred before TMI and before construction started. Also missing from the curve is natural capacity additions. “liquid-fluoride thorium reactor make such a profound difference.” Wow, is that a stretch of logic. I am rather skeptical of those who do not have a clue about the reason of the past projecting the future with such confidence.
  4. Edwin Jackson August 23, 2010 at 1:16 pm Reply
    I believe that the term 'commissioned' is used in the same sense that that term is used in the US Navy. That is the date that the plant is complete and goes active. In this regard at least the following US nuclear plants were commissioned after TMI. Palo Verde (three units initial operation 1986 and 1988) South Texas Project (two units in 1988 and 1989) and the Comanche Peak plant (two units in 1990 and 1993) In addition TVA is currently completing the Watts Bar 2 plant (construction restarted in 2007 projected completion date 2013). FYI you can also check out construction progress on the new AP1000 units at the Vogtle and VC Summer sites on the Westinghouse AP1000 web information page http://www.ap1000.westinghousenuclear.com/ap1000_nui_ic.html. It is also fun to see pictures there of the progress on the 4 AP1000 units under construction in Chins. Ed
  5. David Archibald August 23, 2010 at 3:07 pm Reply
    Kirk, you don't have to fight coal to sell nuclear. Non-OPEC oil production is falling out of bed, that will cause the oil price to rise a lot over the rest of the decade. Coal-to-liquids becomes economic at US$60/bbl. Coal can be considered to be diesel that hasn't gone through a Fischer-Tropsch plant yet. It will soon be too valuable to burn in a power plant. The Sierra Club should be thanked for stopping the construction of coal-fired power plants. That coal needs to be saved for a higher purpose. So, you don't need to fight coal to sell a nuclear future. You don't have an enemy (coal), you have a friend - the oil price.
  6. Kirk Sorensen August 23, 2010 at 3:11 pm Reply
    Here's the data I used in the model, sorted by startup date, with startup dates for the newer reactors being fairly speculative. But the rest of the data comes from the EIA website: REACTOR TYPE MWE START STOP Shippingport-1 PWR 60 12/23/1957 10/1/1982 Dresden-1 BWR 197 7/4/1960 10/31/1978 YankeeRowe-1 PWR 167 1/1/1961 2/26/1992 Indian Point-1 PWR 275 3/26/1962 10/31/1974 ConnYankee-1 PWR 582 1/1/1968 7/22/1996 San Onofre-1 PWR 436 1/1/1968 11/30/1992 Nine Mile Point-1 BWR 621 12/1/1969 8/22/2029 Oyster Creek-1 BWR 619 12/1/1969 4/9/2029 Dresden-2 BWR 867 6/9/1970 12/22/2029 Ginna-1 PWR 498 7/1/1970 9/18/2029 Point Beach-1 PWR 512 12/21/1970 10/5/2030 Millstone-1 BWR 660 12/28/1970 11/1/1995 Robinson-2 PWR 710 3/7/1971 7/31/2030 Monticello-1 BWR 572 6/30/1971 9/8/2030 Dresden-3 BWR 867 11/16/1971 1/12/2031 Palisades-1 PWR 778 12/31/1971 3/24/2031 Point Beach-2 PWR 514 10/1/1972 3/8/2033 Vermont Yankee-1 BWR 620 11/30/1972 3/21/2012 Pilgrim-1 BWR 685 12/1/1972 6/8/2012 Turkey Point-1 PWR 693 12/14/1972 7/19/2032 Surry-1 PWR 799 12/22/1972 5/25/2032 Maine Yankee-1 PWR 900 12/28/1972 12/6/1996 Quad Cities-1 BWR 867 2/18/1973 12/14/2032 Quad Cities-2 BWR 867 3/10/1973 12/14/2032 Surry-2 PWR 799 5/1/1973 1/29/2033 Zion-1 PWR 1040 6/1/1973 1/1/1998 Oconee-1 PWR 846 7/15/1973 2/6/2033 Turkey Point-2 PWR 693 9/7/1973 4/10/2033 Fort Calhoun-1 PWR 482 9/26/1973 8/9/2033 Zion-2 PWR 1040 12/1/1973 1/1/1998 Prairie Island-1 PWR 551 12/16/1973 8/9/2013 Kewaunee-1 PWR 556 6/16/1974 12/21/2013 Cooper-1 BWR 758 7/1/1974 1/18/2014 Peach Bottom-1 BWR 1112 7/5/1974 8/8/2033 Browns Ferry-1 BWR 1065 8/1/1974 12/20/2033 Indian Point-2 PWR 1020 8/1/1974 9/28/2013 Three Mile Island-1 PWR 786 9/2/1974 4/19/2014 Oconee-2 PWR 846 9/9/1974 10/6/2033 Oconee-3 PWR 846 12/16/1974 7/19/2034 ArkansasNuclearOne-1 PWR 843 12/19/1974 5/20/2034 Prairie Island-2 PWR 545 12/21/1974 10/29/2014 Peach Bottom-2 BWR 1112 12/23/1974 7/2/2034 Duane Arnold-1 BWR 580 2/1/1975 2/21/2014 Browns Ferry-2 BWR 1104 3/1/1975 6/28/2034 Rancho Seco-1 PWR 913 4/17/1975 6/7/1989 Calvert Cliffs-1 PWR 873 5/8/1975 7/31/2034 Fitzpatrick-1 BWR 852 7/28/1975 10/17/2034 DC Cook-1 PWR 1009 8/28/1975 10/25/2034 Brunswick-2 BWR 937 11/3/1975 12/27/2034 Millstone-2 PWR 877 12/26/1975 7/31/2035 Hatch-1 BWR 876 12/31/1975 8/6/2034 Trojan-1 PWR 1130 5/20/1976 1/1/1992 Indian Point-3 PWR 1025 8/30/1976 12/15/2015 Beaver Valley-1 PWR 892 10/1/1976 1/29/2016 St Lucie-1 PWR 839 12/21/1976 3/1/2036 Browns Ferry-3 BWR 1105 3/1/1977 7/2/2036 CrystalRiver3 PWR 838 3/13/1977 12/3/2016 Brunswick-1 BWR 938 3/18/1977 9/8/2036 Calvert Cliffs-2 PWR 862 4/1/1977 8/13/2036 Salem-1 PWR 1174 6/30/1977 8/13/2016 Farley-1 PWR 851 12/1/1977 6/25/2037 North Anna-1 PWR 903 6/6/1978 4/1/2038 DC Cook-2 PWR 1009 7/1/1978 12/23/2037 Davis-Besse-1 PWR 879 7/31/1978 4/22/2017 Three Mile Island-2 PWR 906 12/30/1978 3/29/1979 Hatch-2 BWR 883 9/5/1979 6/13/2038 ArkansasNuclearOne-2 PWR 995 3/26/1980 7/17/2038 North Anna-2 PWR 903 12/14/1980 8/21/2040 Sequoyah-1 PWR 1148 7/1/1981 9/17/2020 Farley-2 PWR 860 7/30/1981 3/31/2041 Salem-2 PWR 1130 10/13/1981 4/18/2020 Sequoyah-2 PWR 1126 6/1/1982 9/15/2021 McGuire-1 PWR 1100 12/1/1982 6/12/2041 Susquehanna-1 BWR 1149 6/8/1983 7/17/2022 San Onofre-2 PWR 1070 8/8/1983 2/16/2022 St Lucie-2 PWR 839 8/8/1983 4/6/2043 LaSalle-1 BWR 1118 1/1/1984 4/17/2022 Summer-1 PWR 966 1/1/1984 8/6/2042 McGuire-2 PWR 1100 3/1/1984 3/3/2043 San Onofre-3 PWR 1080 4/1/1984 11/15/2022 LaSalle-2 BWR 1120 10/19/1984 12/16/2023 Columbia-1 BWR 1225 12/13/1984 12/20/2023 Callaway-1 PWR 1190 12/19/1984 10/18/2024 Susquehanna-2 BWR 1140 2/12/1985 3/23/2024 DiabloCanyon-1 PWR 1122 5/7/1985 11/2/2024 Catawba-1 PWR 1129 6/29/1985 12/5/2043 Grand Gulf-1 BWR 1268 7/1/1985 11/1/2024 Wolf Creek-1 PWR 1166 9/3/1985 3/11/2045 Byron-1 PWR 1164 9/16/1985 10/31/2024 Waterford-1 PWR 1157 9/24/1985 12/18/2024 Palo Verde-3 PWR 1247 1/8/1986 11/25/2027 Palo Verde-1 PWR 1311 1/28/1986 6/1/2025 Limerick-1 BWR 1134 2/1/1986 10/26/2024 DiabloCanyon-2 PWR 1118 3/13/1986 8/20/2025 Millstone-3 PWR 1145 4/23/1986 11/25/2045 River Bend-1 PWR 970 6/16/1986 8/29/2025 Catawba-2 PWR 1129 8/19/1986 12/5/2043 Palo Verde-2 PWR 1314 9/19/1986 4/24/2026 Hope Creek-1 BWR 1061 12/20/1986 4/11/2026 Harris-1 PWR 900 5/2/1987 10/24/2046 Vogtle-1 PWR 1109 6/1/1987 1/16/2027 Byron-2 PWR 1136 8/2/1987 11/6/2026 Beaver Valley-2 PWR 846 11/17/1987 5/27/2027 Perry-1 BWR 1245 11/18/1987 3/18/2026 Clinton-1 BWR 1043 11/24/1987 9/29/2026 Fermi-2 BWR 1122 1/23/1988 3/20/2025 Nine Mile Point-2 BWR 1140 3/11/1988 10/31/2046 Braidwood-1 PWR 1178 7/29/1988 10/17/2026 South Texas Project-1 PWR 1280 8/25/1988 8/20/2027 Braidwood-2 PWR 1152 10/17/1988 12/18/2027 Vogtle-2 PWR 1127 5/20/1989 2/9/2029 South Texas Project-2 PWR 1280 6/19/1989 12/15/2028 Limerick-2 BWR 1134 1/8/1990 6/22/2029 ComanchePeak-1 PWR 1150 8/13/1990 2/8/2030 Seabrook-1 PWR 1245 8/19/1990 10/17/2026 ComanchePeak-2 PWR 1150 8/3/1993 2/2/2033 Watts Bar-1 PWR 1123 5/27/1996 11/9/2035 Watts Bar-2 PWR 1123 1/1/2012 1/1/2042 Vogtle-3 PWR 1200 1/1/2016 1/1/2056 Bellefonte-1 PWR 1256 1/1/2017 1/1/2057 Vogtle-4 PWR 1200 1/1/2017 1/1/2057 Bellefonte-2 PWR 1256 1/1/2021 1/1/2061
  7. Kirk Sorensen August 23, 2010 at 3:27 pm Reply
    If anyone knows how to adjust the previous comment in a way that preserves the fixed-pitch nature of the data (including tabs) please let me know. I tried the [code],[/code] tags and that didn't work.
  8. Bill Woods August 24, 2010 at 9:32 am Reply
    another try: REACTOR...........TYPE....MWE.....START........STOP Shippingport-1.....PWR.....60...12/23/1957...10/01/1982 Dresden-1..........BWR....197...07/04/1960...10/31/1978 YankeeRowe-1.......PWR....167...01/01/1961...02/26/1992
  9. Luke_UK August 24, 2010 at 4:06 pm Reply
    Right, HTML 101, all white space is ignored and treated as a single space ...so use dots..... Should have remembered that one! Please delete earlier attempts, and this if it doesn't work, of course. REACTOR...............TYPE......MWE........START...........STOP ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shippingport-1.........PWR.......60......12/23/1957.......10/1/1982 Dresden-1..............BWR......197........7/4/1960......10/31/1978 YankeeRowe-1...........PWR......167........1/1/1961.......2/26/1992 Indian Point-1.........PWR......275.......3/26/1962......10/31/1974 ConnYankee-1...........PWR......582........1/1/1968.......7/22/1996 San Onofre-1...........PWR......436........1/1/1968......11/30/1992 Nine Mile Point-1......BWR......621.......12/1/1969.......8/22/2029 Oyster Creek-1.........BWR......619.......12/1/1969........4/9/2029 Dresden-2..............BWR......867........6/9/1970......12/22/2029 Ginna-1................PWR......498........7/1/1970.......9/18/2029 Point Beach-1..........PWR......512......12/21/1970.......10/5/2030 Millstone-1............BWR......660......12/28/1970.......11/1/1995 Robinson-2.............PWR......710........3/7/1971.......7/31/2030 Monticello-1...........BWR......572.......6/30/1971........9/8/2030 Dresden-3..............BWR......867......11/16/1971.......1/12/2031 Palisades-1............PWR......778......12/31/1971.......3/24/2031 Point Beach-2..........PWR......514.......10/1/1972........3/8/2033 Vermont Yankee-1.......BWR......620......11/30/1972.......3/21/2012 Pilgrim-1..............BWR......685.......12/1/1972........6/8/2012 Turkey Point-1.........PWR......693......12/14/1972.......7/19/2032 Surry-1................PWR......799......12/22/1972.......5/25/2032 Maine Yankee-1.........PWR......900......12/28/1972.......12/6/1996 Quad Cities-1..........BWR......867.......2/18/1973......12/14/2032 Quad Cities-2..........BWR......867.......3/10/1973......12/14/2032 Surry-2................PWR......799........5/1/1973.......1/29/2033 Zion-1.................PWR.....1040........6/1/1973........1/1/1998 Oconee-1...............PWR......846.......7/15/1973........2/6/2033 Turkey Point-2.........PWR......693........9/7/1973.......4/10/2033 Fort Calhoun-1.........PWR......482.......9/26/1973........8/9/2033 Zion-2.................PWR.....1040.......12/1/1973........1/1/1998 Prairie Island-1.......PWR......551......12/16/1973........8/9/2013 Kewaunee-1.............PWR......556.......6/16/1974......12/21/2013 Cooper-1...............BWR......758........7/1/1974.......1/18/2014 Peach Bottom-1.........BWR.....1112........7/5/1974........8/8/2033 Browns Ferry-1.........BWR.....1065........8/1/1974......12/20/2033 Indian Point-2.........PWR.....1020........8/1/1974.......9/28/2013 Three Mile Island-1....PWR......786........9/2/1974.......4/19/2014 Oconee-2...............PWR......846........9/9/1974.......10/6/2033 Oconee-3...............PWR......846......12/16/1974.......7/19/2034 ArkansasNuclearOne-1...PWR......843......12/19/1974.......5/20/2034 Prairie Island-2.......PWR......545......12/21/1974......10/29/2014 Peach Bottom-2.........BWR.....1112......12/23/1974........7/2/2034 Duane Arnold-1.........BWR......580........2/1/1975.......2/21/2014 Browns Ferry-2.........BWR.....1104........3/1/1975.......6/28/2034 Rancho Seco-1..........PWR......913.......4/17/1975........6/7/1989 Calvert Cliffs-1.......PWR......873........5/8/1975.......7/31/2034 Fitzpatrick-1..........BWR......852.......7/28/1975......10/17/2034 DC Cook-1..............PWR.....1009.......8/28/1975......10/25/2034 Brunswick-2............BWR......937.......11/3/1975......12/27/2034 Millstone-2............PWR......877......12/26/1975.......7/31/2035 Hatch-1................BWR......876......12/31/1975........8/6/2034 Trojan-1...............PWR.....1130.......5/20/1976........1/1/1992 Indian Point-3.........PWR.....1025.......8/30/1976......12/15/2015 Beaver Valley-1........PWR......892.......10/1/1976.......1/29/2016 St Lucie-1.............PWR......839......12/21/1976........3/1/2036 Browns Ferry-3.........BWR.....1105........3/1/1977........7/2/2036 CrystalRiver3..........PWR......838.......3/13/1977.......12/3/2016 Brunswick-1............BWR......938.......3/18/1977........9/8/2036 Calvert Cliffs-2.......PWR......862........4/1/1977.......8/13/2036 Salem-1................PWR.....1174.......6/30/1977.......8/13/2016 Farley-1...............PWR......851.......12/1/1977.......6/25/2037 North Anna-1...........PWR......903........6/6/1978........4/1/2038 DC Cook-2..............PWR.....1009........7/1/1978......12/23/2037 Davis-Besse-1..........PWR......879.......7/31/1978.......4/22/2017 Three Mile Island-2....PWR......906......12/30/1978.......3/29/1979 Hatch-2................BWR......883........9/5/1979.......6/13/2038 ArkansasNuclearOne-2...PWR......995.......3/26/1980.......7/17/2038 North Anna-2...........PWR......903......12/14/1980.......8/21/2040 Sequoyah-1.............PWR.....1148........7/1/1981.......9/17/2020 Farley-2...............PWR......860.......7/30/1981.......3/31/2041 Salem-2................PWR.....1130......10/13/1981.......4/18/2020 Sequoyah-2.............PWR.....1126........6/1/1982.......9/15/2021 McGuire-1..............PWR.....1100.......12/1/1982.......6/12/2041 Susquehanna-1..........BWR.....1149........6/8/1983.......7/17/2022 San Onofre-2...........PWR.....1070........8/8/1983.......2/16/2022 St Lucie-2.............PWR......839........8/8/1983........4/6/2043 LaSalle-1..............BWR.....1118........1/1/1984.......4/17/2022 Summer-1...............PWR......966........1/1/1984........8/6/2042 McGuire-2..............PWR.....1100........3/1/1984........3/3/2043 San Onofre-3...........PWR.....1080........4/1/1984......11/15/2022 LaSalle-2..............BWR.....1120......10/19/1984......12/16/2023 Columbia-1.............BWR.....1225......12/13/1984......12/20/2023 Callaway-1.............PWR.....1190......12/19/1984......10/18/2024 Susquehanna-2..........BWR.....1140.......2/12/1985.......3/23/2024 DiabloCanyon-1.........PWR.....1122........5/7/1985.......11/2/2024 Catawba-1..............PWR.....1129.......6/29/1985.......12/5/2043 Grand Gulf-1...........BWR.....1268........7/1/1985.......11/1/2024 Wolf Creek-1...........PWR.....1166........9/3/1985.......3/11/2045 Byron-1................PWR.....1164........9/16/1985.....10/31/2024 Waterford-1............PWR.....1157........9/24/1985.....12/18/2024 Palo Verde-3...........PWR.....1247.........1/8/1986.....11/25/2027 Palo Verde-1...........PWR.....1311........1/28/1986.......6/1/2025 Limerick-1.............BWR.....1134.........2/1/1986.....10/26/2024 DiabloCanyon-2.........PWR.....1118........3/13/1986......8/20/2025 Millstone-3............PWR.....1145........4/23/1986.....11/25/2045 River Bend-1...........PWR......970........6/16/1986......8/29/2025 Catawba-2..............PWR.....1129........8/19/1986......12/5/2043 Palo Verde-2...........PWR.....1314........9/19/1986......4/24/2026 Hope Creek-1...........BWR.....1061.......12/20/1986......4/11/2026 Harris-1...............PWR......900.........5/2/1987.....10/24/2046 Vogtle-1...............PWR.....1109.........6/1/1987......1/16/2027 Byron-2................PWR.....1136.........8/2/1987......11/6/2026 Beaver Valley-2........PWR......846.......11/17/1987......5/27/2027 Perry-1................BWR.....1245.......11/18/1987......3/18/2026 Clinton-1..............BWR.....1043.......11/24/1987......9/29/2026 Fermi-2................BWR.....1122........1/23/1988......3/20/2025 Nine Mile Point-2......BWR.....1140........3/11/1988.....10/31/2046 Braidwood-1............PWR.....1178........7/29/1988.....10/17/2026 South Texas Project-1..PWR.....1280........8/25/1988......8/20/2027 Braidwood-2............PWR.....1152.......10/17/1988.....12/18/2027 Vogtle-2...............PWR.....1127........5/20/1989.......2/9/2029 South Texas Project-2..PWR.....1280........6/19/1989.....12/15/2028 Limerick-2.............BWR.....1134.........1/8/1990......6/22/2029 ComanchePeak-1.........PWR.....1150........8/13/1990.......2/8/2030 Seabrook-1.............PWR.....1245........8/19/1990.....10/17/2026 ComanchePeak-2.........PWR.....1150.........8/3/1993.......2/2/2033 Watts Bar-1............PWR.....1123........5/27/1996......11/9/2035 Watts Bar-2............PWR.....1123.........1/1/2012.......1/1/2042 Vogtle-3...............PWR.....1200.........1/1/2016.......1/1/2056 Bellefonte-1...........PWR.....1256.........1/1/2017.......1/1/2057 Vogtle-4...............PWR.....1200.........1/1/2017.......1/1/2057 Bellefonte-2...........PWR.....1256.........1/1/2021.......1/1/2061 Looks like some table coding works, some does not __REACTOR__ _Type_ __MWe______Start____ ____Stop____ Shippingport-1 PWR 6012/23/1957 10/01/1982 Dresden-1 BWR 19707/04/1960 10/31/1978 YankeeRowe-1 PWR 16701/01/1961 02/26/1992
  10. Robert Hargraves August 29, 2010 at 6:08 am Reply
    I say it wasn't TMI, but Shoreham Long Island that caused the cessation of building new power plants. It was to be an image of the $200 million Millstone plant, but cost over $ 6 billion. In the late 1980s Governor Cuomo signed papers that shut down the plant (operating at 5%), claiming the evacuation procedures were inadequate, and wiping out $6 billion with the stroke of an unguided pen. Who would invest billions that could be wiped out on a political whim? Cuomo had just been elected Governor. What do you think Shumlin will try to do?

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